Academic Publications

1. "Understanding Long-run Price Dispersion" (with Mario J. Crucini) Journal of Monetary Economics
   
   Blog Post
   Summary Slides
   Published Version
   NBER Working Paper Version #1
   NBER Working Paper Version #2
   
   
   
2. "Gains from Trade: Does Sectoral Heterogeneity Matter?" (with Rahul Giri and Kei-Mu Yi) Journal of International Economics
   
   Blog Post
   Published Version
   NBER Working Paper Version
   
   
   
3. "Understanding Interstate Trade Patterns" Journal of International Economics
   
   Blog Post
   Summary Slides
   Published Version
   Working Paper Version
   
   
   
4. "Early 20th Century American Exceptionalism: Production, Trade and Diffusion of the Automobile" (with Dong Cheng, Mario J. Crucini, Hyunseung Oh) Journal of International Economics
   
   VOX Column
   Media Coverage
   Published Version
   NBER Working Paper Version
   
   
   
5. "Gasoline Prices, Transport Costs, and the U.S. Business Cycles" Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
   
   Blog Post
   Published Version
   Working Paper Version
   
   
   
6. "What Explains Global Inflation" (with Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge) IMF Economic Review
   
   Published Version
   Working Paper Version
   
   
   
7. "Diminishing Gains from Trade across Countries: Interaction between Trade Elasticity and Openness" Journal of International Money and Finance
   
   Blog Post
   Published Version
   Working Paper Version
   
   
   
8. "Accounting for Trade Deficits" Journal of International Money and Finance
   
   Blog Post
   Published Version
   Working Paper Version
   
   
   
9. "Oil Price Pass-Through into Consumer Prices: Evidence from U.S. Weekly Data" Journal of International Money and Finance
   
   Blog Post
   Published Version
   Working Paper Version
   
   
   
10. "Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through" (with Jongrim Ha and Marc Stocker) Journal of International Money and Finance
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
11. "The Impact of China’s Fiscal and Monetary Policy Responses to the Great Recession: An Analysis of Firm-Level Chinese Data" (with Wenjun Xue and Jason Taylor) Journal of International Money and Finance
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
12. "Geopolitical Risks and Energy Uncertainty: Implications for Global and Domestic Energy Prices" Energy Economics
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
13. "Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important are Oil Prices?" (with Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge) Energy Economics
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
14. "Energy Price Shocks and Current Account Balances: Evidence from Emerging Market and Developing Economies" (with Mathilde Lebrand and Garima Vasishtha) Energy Economics
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
15. "Thresholds in the Finance-Growth Nexus: A Cross-Country Analysis"  World Bank Economic Review
    
    Blog Post
    Summary Slides
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
16. "Trade and Cities" (with Cem Karayalcin) World Bank Economic Review
    
    Blog Post
    Summary Slides
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
17. "Understanding the International Elasticity Puzzle" Journal of Macroeconomics
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
18. "Trade Partner Diversification and Growth: How Trade Links Matter" (with Ali Sina Onder) Journal of Macroeconomics
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
19. "Relative Price Variability and Inflation: New Evidence" (with Deniz Baglan and Ege Yazgan) Journal of Macroeconomics
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
20. "Drivers of Inflation Convergence across Countries: The Role of Standard Gravity Variables" Macroeconomic Dynamics
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
21. "Unequal Exchange Rate Pass-Through across Income Groups" Macroeconomic Dynamics
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
22. "The Great Trade Collapse: An Evaluation of Competing Stories" Macroeconomic Dynamics
    
    Blog Post
    VOX Column
    Summary Slides
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
23. "Drivers of International Fiscal Spillovers" Economics & Politics
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
24. "Geopolitical Risk and Stock Prices" European Journal of Political Economy
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
25. "Geopolitical Risk, Supply Chains, and Global Inflation" (with Omid Asadollah, Linda Carmy and Md. Rezwanul Hoque) The World Economy
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
26. "Welfare Costs of COVID-19: Evidence from U.S. Counties" Journal of Regional Science
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
27. "Agglomeration and Trade: State-Level Evidence from U.S. Industries" Journal of Regional Science
    
    Blog Post
    Summary Slides
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
28. "Inflation Convergence over Time: Sector-Level Evidence within Europe" International Finance
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
29. "Welfare Costs of Bilateral Currency Crises: The Role of International Trade" International Finance
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
30. "Pass-through of Trade Costs to U.S. Import Prices" Review of World Economics
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
31. "The Role of Direct Flights in Trade Costs" (with Demet Yilmazkuday) Review of World Economics
    
    Blog Post
    Summary Slides
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
32. "Pass-Through of Shocks into Different U.S. Prices" Review of International Economics
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
33. "A Solution to the Missing Globalization Puzzle by Non-CES Preferences" Review of International Economics
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
34. "Mismeasurement of Distance Effects: The Role of Internal Location of Production" Review of International Economics
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
35. "Bilateral versus Multilateral Free Trade Agreements: A Welfare Analysis" (with Demet Yilmazkuday) Review of International Economics
    
    Blog Post
    Summary Slides
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
36. "Drivers of Income Growth Inequality" Review of Development Economics
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
37. "Government Consumption, Government Debt and Economic Growth" (with Shahrzad Ghourchian) Review of Development Economics
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
38. "Geopolitical Risks and Cryptocurrency Returns" Review of Financial Economics
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
39. "Uneven Effects of Monetary Policy: Sectoral Disparities in Credit Card Spending" Central Bank Review
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
40. "High versus Low Inflation: Implications on Price-Level Convergence" (with Ege Yazgan) Empirical Economics
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
41. "Estimating the Trade Elasticity over Time" Economics Letters
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
42. "Price Dispersion across U.S. Districts of Entry" Economics Letters
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
43. "Business Cycles through International Shocks: A Structural Investigation" Economics Letters
    
    Blog Post
    Summary Slides
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
44. "Price-Level Convergence: New Evidence from U.S. Cities" (with Ege Yazgan) Economics Letters
    
    Blog Post
    Summary Slides
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
45. "Monetary Policy and Credit Cards: Evidence from a Small-Open Economy" Economic Modelling
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
46. "An Analysis of Regime Shifts in the Turkish Economy" (with Koray Akay) Economic Modelling
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
47. "Constant versus Variable Markups: Implications for the Law of One Price" International Review of Economics and Finance
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
48. "Importer-Specific Elasticities of Demand: Evidence from U.S. Exports" International Review of Economics and Finance
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
49. "Welfare Costs of Urban Traffic through Retail Prices" Transport Policy
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
50. "Coronavirus Disease 2019 and the Global Economy" Transport Policy
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
51. "Profit Margins in U.S. Domestic Airline Routes" Transport Policy
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
52. "Asymmetric Incidence of Sales Taxes: A Short-Run Investigation of Gasoline Prices" Journal of Economics and Business
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
53. "Drivers of Turkish Inflation" Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
54. "Can Inflation Targeting Regimes be Effective in Developing Countries? The Turkish Experience" (with Ali Kutan and Cem Akyurek) Journal of Asian Economics
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
55. "Forecasting the Great Trade Collapse" International Economics
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
56. "Inflation, Financial Development, and Growth: A Trilateral Analysis" (with Peter L. Rousseau) Economic Systems
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
57. "Spatial Dispersion of Retail Margins: Evidence from Turkish Agricultural Prices" Agricultural Economics
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
58. "Gains from Domestic versus International Trade: Evidence from the U.S." Journal of International Trade & Economic Development
    
    Blog Post
    Summary Slides
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
59. "Welfare Implications of Solving the Distance Puzzle: Global Evidence from the Last Two Centuries" Journal of International Trade & Economic Development
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
60. "Gravity Channels in Trade" (with Yulin Hou and Yun Wang) Journal of International Trade & Economic Development
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
61. "Individual Tax Rates and Regional Tax Revenues: A Cross-State Analysis" Regional Studies
    
    Blog Post
    Media Coverage
    Summary Slides
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
62. "Unequal Welfare Gains from Trade across Countries: The Role of Aggregation and Income Elasticities" International Economic Journal
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
63. "Protectionism, Competitiveness and Inequality: Cross-Country Evidence from Soccer" International Economic Journal
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
64. "Drivers of Global Trade: A Product-Level Investigation" International Economic Journal
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
65. "Decomposing the Gains from Trade through the Standard Gravity Variables" International Economic Journal
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
66. "Inflation Thresholds and Growth" International Economic Journal
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
67. "Geographical Dispersion of Consumer Search Behavior" Applied Economics
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
68. "Inflation Targeting, Flexible Exchange Rates and Inflation Convergence" Applied Economics
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
69. "Inflation Targeting Supported by Managed Exchange Rate" Applied Economics
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
70. "Effects of Credit and Debit Cards on the Currency Demand" (with Ege Yazgan), Applied Economics
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
71. "COVID-19 Effects on the S&P 500 Index" Applied Economics Letters
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
72. "Daily Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Micro Prices" (with Renzo Alvarez, Amin Shoja and Syed Uddin) Applied Economics Letters
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
73. "The Effects of Currency Crises on the Long-Run Growth" Applied Economics Letters
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
74. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Evidence from Turkey and Israel" (with Ege Yazgan) Applied Financial Economics
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
75. "Financial Health and The Intensive Margin of Trade" (with Deniz Baglan) Emerging Markets Finance and Trade
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
76. "The Effects of Currency Crises in Emerging Markets on the Industrial Sector: An Alternative Regime-Shifting Approach" Emerging Markets Finance and Trade
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
77. "Structural Breaks in Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence from Transition Countries" Emerging Markets Finance and Trade
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
78. "Welfare Costs of Travel Reductions within the U.S. due to COVID-19" Regional Science, Policy and Practice
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
79. "COVID-19 and Unequal Social Distancing across Demographic Groups" Regional Science, Policy and Practice
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
80. "COVID-19 and Housing Prices: Evidence from U.S. County-Level Data" Review of Regional Research
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
81. "How Wide is the Border across U.S. States?" Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
82. "Okun's Convergence within the U.S." (with Ege Yazgan) Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
83. "Inflation and Growth: The Role of Institutions" Journal of Economics and Finance
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
84. "Welfare Costs of Shopping Trips" The Annals of Regional Science
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
85. "Understanding Gasoline Price Dispersion" (with Demet Yilmazkuday) The Annals of Regional Science
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
86. "COVID-19 and Exchange Rates: Spillover Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy" Atlantic Economic Journal
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
87. "A Political Economy Analysis of Changes and Continuities in Iran-Africa Trade Relations: A Case of South-South Dependency?" (with Eric Lob) Review of Social Economy
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
88. "Inflation Dynamics of Turkey: A Structural Estimation" (with Ege Yazgan) Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics
    
    Summary Slides
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
89. "Nonlinear Effects of Mobility on COVID-19 in the U.S.: Targeted Lockdowns Based on Income and Poverty" Journal of Economic Studies
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
90. "Specialization, Field Distance and Quality in Economists' Collaborations" (with Ali Sina Onder and Sascha Schweitzer) Journal of Informetrics
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
91. "Thirty-Five Years of Peer-Reviewed Publishing by North American Economics PhDs: Quantity, Quality, and Beyond" (with Ali Sina Onder) Open Economics
    
    VOX Column
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
92. "Stay-at-Home Works to Fight Against COVID-19: International Evidence from Google Mobility Data" Journal of Human Behavior in the Social Environment
    
    Blog Post
    Media Coverage #1
    Media Coverage #2
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
93. "Fighting Against COVID-19 Requires Wearing a Face Mask by Not Some but All" Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives
    
    Blog Post
    Media Coverage
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
94. "COVID-19 Spread and Inter-County Travel: Daily Evidence from the U.S." Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
95. "Geopolitical Risks and Exchange Rates" Finance Research Letters
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
96. "COVID-19 and Monetary Policy with Zero Bounds: A Cross-Country Investigation" Finance Research Letters
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
97. "Unequal Unemployment Effects of COVID-19 and Monetary Policy across U.S. States" Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy
    
    Blog Post
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
98. "Money Shocks and Output: A Contemporary Money Demand Approach" Empirical Economics Letters
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
99. "The IS Puzzle and Relative Risk Aversion in Turkey" (with Ege Yazgan) Empirical Economics Letters
    
    Published Version
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
100. "Productivity Cycles in Public and Private Manufacturing Sectors: Evidence from Turkey" International Journal of Applied Economics
     
     Published Version
     Working Paper Version
     
     
     
101. "Twin Crises in Turkey: A Comparison of Currency Crisis Models" European Journal of Comparative Economics
     
     Published Version
     Working Paper Version
     
     
     
102. "Anti-Crime Laws and Retail Prices" Review of Law and Economics
     
     Blog Post
     Published Version
     Working Paper Version
     
     
     
103. "COVID-19 and Daily Oil Price Pass-Through" Energy Research Letters
     
     Blog Post
     Published Version
     Working Paper Version
     
     
     
104. "Redistributive Effects of Gasoline Prices" (with Demet Yilmazkuday) Networks and Spatial Economics
     
     Blog Post
     Published Version
     Working Paper Version
     
     
     
105. "Changes in Consumption in the Early COVID-19 Era: Zip-Code Level Evidence from the U.S." Journal of Risk and Financial Management
     
     Blog Post
     Published Version
     Working Paper Version
     
     
     
106. "Unequal Welfare Costs of Staying at Home across Socioeconomic and Demographic Groups" International Journal of Urban Sciences
     
     Blog Post
     Published Version
     Working Paper Version
     
     

Working Papers

1. "Drivers of Growth Spillovers"
   
   Working Paper Version
   
   
   
2. "El Niño, La Niña and Inflation"
   
   Working Paper Version
   
   
   
3. "Trump Tariffs and Stock Prices"
   
   Working Paper Version
   
   
   
4. "Welfare Costs of Oil Price Shocks"
   
   Working Paper Version
   
   
   
5. "Geopolitical Risks and Shipping Costs"
   
   Working Paper Version
   
   
   
6. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through"
   
   Working Paper Version
   
   
   
7. "Drivers of Credit and Debit Card Transactions" 
   
   Working Paper Version
   
   
   
8. "Inflation Spillovers through International Trade"
   
   Working Paper Version
   
   
   
9. "Accounting for the Gains from Tariff Reductions"
   
   Working Paper Version
   
   
   
10. "Shock-Dependent Phillips Curve: Evidence from the U.S."
    
    Blog Post
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
11. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth"
    
    Working Paper Version 
    
    
    
12. "Geopolitics and International Research Collaboration"
    
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
13. "Drivers of Diplomatic Disagreement: Implications for Sectoral Trade"
    
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
14. "Artificial Intelligence and Labor Markets: Evidence from Google Trends"
    
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
15. "International Spillover Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Economic Growth"
    
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
16. "Gains from Reducing Transport Costs: Essential Transport Policy Suggestions"
    
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
17. "Unequal Inflationary Effects of Tariffs across Socio-Demographic Groups"
    
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
18. "Tariffs, Inflation and Monetary Policy: Implications for Welfare" (with Renzo Alvarez)
    
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
19. "Geopolitical Risks and Monetary Policy: Effects of Global versus Ukrainian Shocks"
    
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
20. "Global Supply Chains and Geopolitical Risks: Policy Implications for Trade Deficits"
    
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
21. "Spillovers of Global versus Domestic Uncertainty: Implications for Inflation and Monetary Policy"
    
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
22. "Global versus Domestic Supply Chain Disruptions: Implications for Inflation and Economic Confidence"
    
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
23. "Exchange Rate Determination under Alternative Inflation Targets: The Role of Trade Costs" (with Renzo Alvarez)
    
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
24. "Housing Price Dynamics within the U.S.: Evidence from Zip Codes with Different Demographics" (with Shahrzad Ghourchian)
    
    Working Paper Version
    
    
    
25. "Energy Security and Economic Growth: The Role of Geopolitical Tensions" (with Khandaker Jahangir Alam and Aida Ashtari Nakhaee)
    
    Working Paper Version